To investigate the prognostic and clinical usefulness of existing scoring systems in predicting the severity of acute pancreatitis (AP).
Methods: This prospective, observational clinical study included patients with diagnosed AP. Ranson’s, bedside index for severity in acute pancreatitis (BISAP) and PANC 3 scoring systems were used to stratify the severity of disease. Scores from each model were compared to clinical severity. Sensitivity, specificity and accuracy were computed for each model. A p<0.05 was considered statistically significant.
Results: Of 54 patients, 25 patients had non-biliary (group I) and 29 patients had biliary pancreatitis (group II). Based on Ranson’s scoring, 32% and 27.6% in group I and II were classified as severe pancreatitis whereas the calculated BISAP score predicted severe condition in 24% and 20.7% in group I and II (p=0.77). BISAP was the most accurate (78%) in predicting organ failure, followed by Ranson’s (72%) and PANC 3 (65%). Accuracy of BISAP, Ranson’s and PANC 3 scoring systems were 91%, 69% and 79.62%, respectively for predicting disease severity.
Conclusion: It was seen that BISAP was better than Ranson’s in assessing organ failure, mortality and clinical severity in terms of sensitivity, specificity, PPV, NPV and accuracy.